The attention of political analysts around the world is focused on the events in Ukraine. But at a certain moment, the fires die out and the riots subside – what will remain are the dry statistics.
Translator’s notes: This is a translation of a post on the weblog “Sputnik and Pogrom”, the authors can be described as Russian Nationalists. But that does not make it any less true, the reason that I translated this is that you will never read something like this in the Western Media, Russian Nationalists do not fit the narrative.
Original post by Kyrill Ksenovontov, 28th of January 2014
Translation: Nils van der Vegte
Ukraine showed itself and the world in 2013 that the country is not important: instead of the planned 3.4% economic growth, it achieved something close to zero. 2013 was a negative year for almost all its economic sectors, except for agriculture (industry decreased by -4.7%). Most experts expect no more than 1% GDP growth in 2014. The irony is that the final fall into the abyss of economic crisis was prevented only by trade with Russia. But in 2014 even trade with Russia will do nothing to prevent that: The budget deficit for 2014 is 4.3% of GDP. The worst thing is that, economically speaking, the two halves of the country vary even more than the Czech Republic and Slovakia once did.
For example, the share of the Donetsk and Dnepropetrovsk regions of total Ukrainian exports is 35% , whilst the 7 most western regions (some of which have a serious historical bonus), make up for just 1/14 of Ukrainian exports. Regionally speaking, the highest number of people living below the poverty line can be found in the north-western and south-central regions (in the Lvov region, 30% of the people live around the poverty line).
The title of this map is “export per region as percentage of the total export, january-november 2013”.
The stronger the colour red is, the larger the share of exports. The regions Dnepropetrovsk (15,6) and Donetsk (19,7) stand out together with the city of Kiev (19,1).
Eastern Regions (total): 58,1%
Kiev and Sevastopol (total): 19,3%
Central Regions (total): 15,1%
Western Regions (total) 7,5%
Source:ukrstat.gov.ua. Original: sputnikipogrom.com
The Human Development Index of Ukraine as a whole is predictably bad but, eastern Kharkov (0,559) is well ahead of western Ternopol (0,475) and the city called “Window to Europe”, Uzhgorod (0,492).
If one looks at the map of the protests, it becomes obvious that the poor western half of the country is rebelling. In the past year, from all regions in the west of the country only the Lvov, Sumy and Cherkasy regions managed to do relatively well (but they managed it thanks to relatively low levels of subventions otherwise they would experience strong negative growth as well), all the others experienced a strong loss in economic activity.
The development of the regions in Ukraine over the past 15 years has been extremely uneven: the GRP (Gross Regional Product) of the Dnepropetrovsk region increased 20.3 times whilst none of the western regions managed to achieve an increase by more than 11.9 times. This means that, whilst the Eastern regions managed to do quite well, the western regions, for unknown regions, managed to lag seriously behind the East (the Eastern regions performed almost two times better). That is why the average salary in the East is 1,5 times more than in the West and the gap is only increasing.
The title of the map is “Salaries per region in US Dollars (8,5 Hryvnia is 1 Dollar), 2013”.
Red regions are regions with a higher than average salary (381 dollar), blue – lower.
Red regions: Kiev and Kiev Region, Nikolaev Region, Dnepropetrovsk Region, Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhye.
Source: ukrstat.gov.ua/map: sputnikipogrom.com
For comparison: the average salary in Russia was 865 Dollars in 2013.
Ukraine’s GDP for the year 2013 is equal to about 1.475 trillion Hryvnia and more than half of it was earned by only 4 regions (Donetsk, Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporozhye and Lugansk).
The difference in gross regional product is striking. For example, when one compares the GRP of the Chernivtsi Region, a region dominated by the opposition (where protesters seized the regional administration building) with the “calm” regions in the east then: the GRP of the Dnipropetrovsk region is 3.17 times higher, in Donetsk 2.65 times, in Zaporizhia 2.6 times, in Kharkov 2.16 times and in Odessa 2 times.
In these circumstances, it would be logical to expect that the state would withdraw funds from the richest regions in order to distribute them among those who are poorer. In 2013 alone, the Donetsk region gave 1.7 billion Hryvnia, but it got back only 362 million Hryvnia. Naturally, some of that money came back to the region as donor funding to build infrastructure and industrial facilities, but most of this amount was spent to subsidize the western regions. For example, in 2010, the created/produced GRP per capita was 29.98 thousand Hryvnia in the Donetsk region, but the received income was only 21.36 thousand Hryvnia per capita. The Dnipropetrovsk region was an even bigger donor, in 2010 the total value of produced goods was 34.1 thousand Hryvnia per capita and the federal government took almost a third of this sum.
The budget of the Ternopol region (were protesters successfully captured the regional administration) got 243 million 984.6 thousand Hryvnia as taxes and other income from the region itself but the state budget provided, on top of that, 630 million and 63 thousand Hryvnia…
All this can be compared with the situation in Germany after 1991, when the Western German Government spent a considerable portion of the budget to develop the former GDR. But the situation is much more similar to the situation between the Russian regions and the Caucasus in the Russian Federation: The GRP of the Caucasian Republics is 7-8 times lower than the that of the average Russian region but at the same time the sum of state subsidies is known to everyone and still the population is hostile to those who feed them.
If we carefully analyze the direction of China’s economic expansion in Ukraine, it turns out that the lion’s share of investments from China to the Eastern Russian regions of the country. It is generally not hard to predict what will happen after the signing the Association Agreement with the EU: the East of the country will lose a lot but in the Western regions not so much, the poverty will not disappear and West Ukraine cannot boast about any interesting products that are being made there.
Hypothetically, there is the possibility of “a united Italy” scenario: when the politically dominant north began to use the rich south as an internal colony (which led to the current contrast between the north and south of Italy). But in modern Ukraine, there is no “old money” to organize this kind of process (also, none of the Ukrainian oligarchs are able to play the role of the respectable Genoese banker). Ukrainians are accustomed to ultra right-wing violence and populism but they cannot manage to attract (or create) a middle class and businesses.
If (theoretically) investors will come to Ukraine after the signing of the association agreement, these investors will mostly go to the East of the country. Why? Because things are being produced there, there is infrastructure and there is a good track-record of export. In Russia, Renault-Nissan has gone through many hardships and continues to modernize the cumbersome “AvtoVAZ” in Togliatti instead of building its own factory in, say, Tuva.
“The Western Ukraine is, economically speaking, a “Wild Field”, which nobody wants to develop. From the point of view from investors, it is much better to invest in the resource-rich Eastern Regions with a calm population and , more or less, stabile economic networks than the poor Western Ukraine with a high number of ultra-right wing militants.”
Nowadays, the Transcarpathian, Ivano-Frankivsk and Lvov regions, number almost 78,000 companies, many of which are created with the participation of foreign capital. But the seven outer areas of the country are exporting less than little Estonia ($ 15 billion) and isolated Belarus ($ 46 billion). The geographic proximity to Europe does not help at all, even small Slovakia ($ 80 billion per year) exports more than all the regions of Ukraine combined (not to mention the western regions).
The South-East of Ukraine has almost all the major companies in the country: “Donetskugol”, Kryvorizhstal”, “Donetsk Metallurgical Plant”, “Azovstal”, “Alchevsk steel and the Ilyich Steel Works”, “Malyshev Plant”. “Topaz”, “Southern Machine-Building Plant”, “Hartron”, “RADMIR”, “Kharkov Aviation Enterprise”, “Motor Sich”, “Black Sea Shipyard “Ocean””, “Kherson Shipyard”, “Kharkov Tractor Plant”, refineries in Lugansk, Odessa, Kherson, Berdyansk, “the South Ukrainian nuclear power plant”, “DnieproGES” and the “Kakhovskaya HPP”, seaports of Odessa, Sevastopol, Feodosia, Evpatoria, Kerch, Berdyansk, Mariupul and much more.
The example of the Crimea is typical: in the past year the number of entrepreneurs out there increased by 1.4 thousand people, tax collected amounted to 280 million Hryvnia (70 million Hryvnia more than the year before), land owners paid 672,5 million Hryvnia in land taxes (32 million Hryvnia more than before). Moreover the budget for 2014, that was recently passed, lacks deficit (5.4 billion Hryvnia income vs. 5.3 billion Hryvnia costs). It is hard to find a region in Western Ukraine which manages to do that. The Crimea however is, by the standards of the eastern part of the country, not one of the economically most developed regions.
Ukrainian real GDP in 2013, was just 84% of the level of 1992, this means that the people do not “live better and better” but are living worse. In our review of the Global Wealth Report 2013, we did not touch on this, but it will be helpful to readers to know that Ukraine was called one of the poorest countries in the world, on par with Africa. There are many explanations as to why, but I personally prefer the “cultural anthropology” version.
Western Ukraine is the citadel of Ukrainian nationalism and at the same time, the most immature of the two halves of the country. It all boils down to the fact that local nationalism came from the towns (as was the case in all countries – from France to Norway) and from the villages. How many political figures of the Ukrainian national movement came out of the urban environment? Why did the people, before the revolution and the Bolshevik “Ukrainianization”, who lived in cities in Ukraine spoke Russian and why was Ukrainian mostly spoken in the countryside? The entire “Ukrainian” movement bears the heavy imprint of provincialism and narrow-mindedness, characteristic of people from the village, which, as such already has negative consequences for it.
Suffice it to say that of the five largest cities (Kharkov, Odessa, Kiev, Donetsk, Dnepropetrovsk) four belong to the Russian-speaking south-east of the country. Speaking of Kiev, on paper it is responsible for about 40% of the budget revenues (excluding customs) because many businesses are registered there and also pay taxes there. But subsidies to perform the functions of the capital, the huge costs for infrastructure and other payments from the budget to fund organizations actually mean, no yoke, that Kiev is one of the most subsidized regions across the country. Some may see the parallels with Moscow in Russia (which earns a quarter of the country’s GDP), but these parallels are not really there, the capital of Russia had until recently a budget deficit of 146 billion rubles, largely because of Putin’s election promises.
However, let’s not get distracted here. If you look at the competitiveness of individual regions of Ukraine, it is dominated by the eastern provinces: of the top 5, only Kiev is “Ukrainian”, Donetsk leads on the effectiveness of corporate governance (higher than Switzerland), the railway structure of the Kharkov region corresponds to the Netherlands, on efficiency of the goods market Odessa is nr 1, Donetsk takes the lead on the availability of new technologies (in the Chernigov region, it is the lowest of all the regions in the world), Donetsk also takes the lead on business development and Kharkov leads in innovation. Naturally , the people from the West of Ukraine gratefully give their Eastern brothers, who are the engine for their prosperity, nicknames like “Muscovites” and “Donetsk rednecks”
“Competitiveness of Ukrainian Regions, on the basis of the “Effective Management” fund (fer.org.ua) 2013″
Red: most competitive regions of Ukraine
Details: fer.org.ua, map: sputnikipogrom.com
In the coming year, Yanukovich intends to give 55% of the national budget to the regions and it is highly likely that most of it will go to purchase the loyalty of the Ukrainian Nationalists. Therefore, Ukraine’s state budget for 2014 includes an increase in loans to the general fund, which amount to 157.31 billion Hryvnia (0.2% more than a year ago). The protégé of criminal clans is really not a “pro-Russian candidate”, in fact, under his leadership Ukraine approached European integration more decisive than under Yushchenko.
In addition, the preservation of the unity of the country is in the interest of the oligarchs who supported Yanukovich coming to power in the first place: they can only preserve and increase their wealth in a single economic space. But whether that is in the interest of the eastern regions?
The problem is that the domestic market of Ukraine is quite poorly developed. Steel exports this year fell by only 2.1% (and that was only because of serious trouble in the global steel industry), but domestic consumption fell by 15%. Domestic consumption of Ukrainian metal (an important source of income for the budget)is only 18% of the total production. In terms of per capita domestic consumption of steel products, Ukraine only has 140 kg per capita. In South Korea the figure stands at 1150 kg, Japan 507 kg, in the Czech Republic 596 kg, in Germany 480 kg and in China 460 kg. These figures suggest that the eastern steelworkers can easily do without the western regions.
Of the planned development and adoption of 3724 regulations in the area of technical regions, Ukraine has only adopted 70 national standards (only 1.5% of the target). Even though more than 15(!) Ministries and Central Executive Bodies were involved like the Ministry of Economic Development, Ministry of Finance, The State Property Agency, Ministry of Agrarian Policy, the Ministry of Coal and Energy, The Ministry of Infrastructure, the Antimonopoly Committee, State Customs Service and many more.
In the year 2013, only the economic sectors of agriculture and retail trade grew, but these could not compensate for the decline in domestic demand in other sectors of the economy. The perspectives of the continuation of a united Ukrainian state are perfectly illustrated by the following data: in 2012 the ratio shadow economy – official GDP was 45%. According to the results of 2012, Ukraine is one of the thirty largest importers in the world (25th), this says enough about the state of the country.
According to research by the World Trade report 2013, Ukraine is on the 10th place in the list of most attractive countries to purchase land, with a potential of 1.2 million ha (that means it is almost one third of arable land in Europe). Most of this land is located in the southeast.
The Post-Soviet countries share of total exports of a unified Ukraine is 36.8%, Asia 25.7%, Europe (mainly EU countries, but not limited to) 25.3%, Africa 8.2% and America 3.8%. The absolute majority of the export products come from the east of the country. It is in the east that the national financial flows are generated and concentrated, which has lead to the creation of large financial-industrial groups and there is nothing that would presage a significant reduction in demand for products in these regions. Western and central Ukraine are focused on the development of the domestic consumer market, which, in theory, would be very good (like in the US) but it turns out that in West Ukraine, it is actually very, very bad. The financial base of Ukrainian nationalism is not impressive. Of the 20 largest banks in Ukraine: 1 belongs to Poltava deputy Konstantin Zhevaho, 1 to the Buryak brothers from Donesk, 1 to Russian citizen Novitskiy, 2 to the husband of Julia Chebotareva (related to former president Kuchma) Nicholaj Lagun, 1 to the “best friend of the Kremlin”, Firtash, 1 to a partner of Yanukovych, Akhmetov, and only one to the sponsor of the Ukrainian Nationalists Igor Kolomoisky. Everything else belongs to European and Russian banks, which are partly owned by the people close to the Russian government (mostly immigrants from the East of Ukraine).
The 6th largest bank in the country (“Prominvestbank”) belongs to the Russian VEB bank and is embedded in important industries for Ukraine: Energy and transport engineering, nuclear energy and aircraft and engine development. Its target clientele – leaders of the national industry, export-oriented enterprises, large enterprises (infrastructure) and medium-sized businesses. In the western Ukraine, the bank participates in the construction of the fourth line of the Kiev Metro and the completion of the Khmelnitsky NPP (Nuclear Power Plant), not to mention dozens of smaller projects. So if someone screams “kick out the Muscovites”, we need to add “out of economically insolvent regions.”
So, in the case of the separation of the Ukrainian East, that region will lose very little as it can throw the western regions out off the balance sheet. The West of the country will lose a lot more: it will be one big Albania. In this situation, the unity of Ukraine can be saved by, oddly enough, the Customs Union. In the case of Ukraine joining the CU, it will have: a revision of energy prices, increased tariff protection market, unimpeded trade will all members of the CU, the lack of gas/dairy/meat wars, and protection against threats from external markets.
Ukrainian Nationalists renamed the “Customs Union” into the “Taiga Union” but, dear Western Ukrainians, if you look at the GRP per capita in your regions, you are not even “Taiga” and, at some points, not even on par with Africa.
The current statistics show that the CU is a very good choice for Ukraine: in 2009, the amount of export transactions between member countries was $36 billion, in 2010 it had already grown to $46 billion, in 2011 to $63 billion and in 2012 to $68.9 billion. In 2012 the trade vole between Russia en Belarus increased by 9.6%, between Russia and Kazakhstan by 6.8% and between Belarus and Kazakhstan 15.1%. Speaking of Belarus: in 2012, Russia and Belarus reached an agreement on the average price of gas: $ 165.6 per thousand cubic meters (Ukraine pays $ 268.5), the profit for Belarus, which gets oil at Russian domestic prices, is estimated at $ 700 million per year.
The removal of export duties on oil to Ukraine could give the Ukrainian budget $ 3 billion (for petroleum products about $ 500 million), a decrease in gas prices to the level of domestic could mean a $ 4.6 billion profit. The big question whether the CU is beneficial for Russia. All this without talking about GDP growth, scientific and technical cooperation and other pleasant bonuses. The association agreement with the EU will be much less favourable.
The economic gap between the two parts of the same country today deepens the national political divide: Russian eastern regions are quiet, whilst the fires of civil disobedience rage. We will not argue who is right and who is not. The main thing is that the two halves of the country have already started the latent confrontation and to preserve the unity of the country it is necessary to resort to the federalization, based on the Canadian example (or peaceful disengagement, as in Czechoslovakia).
The existing unitary state will appeal less and less profitable for the Ukrainian eastern regions and will lead to more and more questions about living together with the colourful peasants from the West to are producing mainly chants and burning tires. For now, the East of the Ukraine has been mesmerized with the Western talk about Europe and the cries of “Glory to Ukraine” but when the eastern Ukrainians start counting the money (and their OWN money), it will mean a very sad ending for the colourful tire burners from the West